Microwave Magic: Prospects with Star-Level Metrics Ready for the Next Level

By: Ben Schubbe

Over the next two nights, every team has the challenge of picking the right prospect(s) that will perform at a high-level in the NBA and fit their team culture. Unfortunately, not every pick will work out the way the team expects when they draft them. 

In this article, I analyze some of the projected top picks in this draft class who have the potential to really stand out in the NBA and who are some of the hidden gems hanging around the late first round and second round. Each graph in this article compares the current prospect pool for the 2025 NBA Draft to current rising stars and All-Stars from the previous five draft classes.

Cooper Flagg, Duke, Freshman

The clear choice for the Mavericks at #1 and the pick Nico Harrison desperately needed to replace Luka Doncic. Flagg's two-way play stood out all year at Duke, leading the team in all of the five main stat categories. He's a true competitor and winner, and that mentality will suit him well at next level, where he has already had some experience playing with some of the stars on Team USA. 

When looking at the analysis I did in my article titled, "2025 NBA Draft: Breaking Down Player Potential by the Numbers" it is evident that Cooper Flagg stands among the current rising stars and All-Stars from the previous five draft classes. When looking at just offensive production and minutes per game (top left), Flagg outperforms the rising stars in points and is right near the clusters of both rising stars and All-Stars.

In the graph measuring shooting percentages from the field and from three (top right), there is a clear cluster of rising stars with some All-Stars mixed in as well. Flagg ranks very well inside that cluster, being inside the top half of both measurables.

Even when looking at advanced statistics for the prospects, Flagg's metrics look very impressive. When comparing PER and TS% (bottom left), Flagg has a very similar true shooting percentage to many of the rising stars in the NBA and he completely outperforms them in terms of efficiency.

When comparing both sides of the ball into one plot (bottom right), Cooper Flagg's defensive rating is the best out of all the prospects that fit into the rising stars and All-Stars cluster. His defensive prowess was on display in Duke's Final Four run and it shows up in the numbers here. He also measures right around all of the top young NBA players in eFG%. 

Flagg doesn't miss a beat in comparing with the rising stars and All-Stars of NBA. A sure sign that he will become one too? You can't tell before he gets there and plays, but all of the signs point toward the fact that he will become a star in the league.

Tre Johnson, Texas, Freshman

The SEC's top shot creators have had major success in their transition to the NBA. From the likes of Brandon Miller, Cam Thomas, Tyrese Maxey, Anthony Edwards, and newly crowned MVP and NBA Champion, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the SEC has produced great players with outstanding scoring ability. Can the SEC's reigning scoring champ, Tre Johnson, join them? I think so. Johnson is my favorite player in this class because of his athleticism and scoring ability that has proven to translate to the next level.

It's no doubt that Tre Johnson can be productive on the offensive side of the floor. Looking at his PPG and MPG compared to other prospects (top left), his numbers are very similar to recent All-Stars in the league.

As for efficiency, Tre Johnson doesn't disappoint either. He has a very high FG% and good 3P% that put him in the cluster of rising stars from the recent draft classes (top right). Johnson earned the SEC scoring title not only through his overall production, but in his shooting efficiency as well.

When comparing his player efficiency rating and true shooting percentage to other prospects (bottom left), Johnson lands right in the middle of the rising stars cluster and close to All-Star level, showing that he has great upside in being an efficient scorer at the next level.

Johnson does falter in his defensive performance compared to the group of rising stars and All-Stars (bottom right). His eFG% lands right in the middle of the rising stars cluster, but his defensive rating is lacking. However, with his athleticism and length, he definitely has plenty of potential to grow that area of his game and become a real weapon in the NBA.

Walter Clayton Jr., Florida, Senior

Not much can be said about Walter Clayton Jr. other than WOW! What he did in Florida's March Madness run was super impressive. You can't teach winning or being clutch, they're built from inside and Clayton Jr. has both in him. He shot up draft boards because of his performance and it is completely justified. He showed that he was able to perform at a super high level when it mattered most.

Walter Clayton Jr.'s performance from the season also showed up in a big way in his numbers comparing to rising stars and All-Stars in the league currently. When looking at pure offensive output (top left), he landed right near the middle of both the rising stars and All-Stars cluster. 

His efficiency in shooting also stood out in the plots (top right). He had a very high field goal percentage and shot the three ball at a very good clip, not surprising given what everyone saw in March Madness.

But, as I looked at more advanced stats, his comparisons only improved. When comparing PER and TS% (bottom left), he landed inside the rising stars group and in the overlap with the All-Stars group as well. His efficiency on the court ranked right up there with the current young All-Stars in the NBA.

Even when comparing his defensive rating and eFG% to the rising stars and All-Stars in the league, his performance again found the overlap between both clusters. Clayton Jr. is not only an offensive weapons but can put up a strong fight on the defensive side of the ball as well. 

Being among the All-Stars in both advanced metrics and right next to them in PPG and MPG, he is very good company and strongly projects to be an All-Star in the NBA.

Nique Clifford, Colorado State, Senior

Nique Clifford gained everyone's attention as Colorado State made a run in March Madness, upsetting Memphis and losing on a buzzer beater to Maryland. Any questions about his play seeming elevated due to the level of competition he was facing in the Mountain West were shut down. Clifford showed that he is going to be a tough matchup for anyone moving to the next level.

Looking at offensive production (top left), Clifford is in great company, landing amongst the All-Stars cluster. That is in part what sparked a great run for Colorado State against tough competition in March Madness. 

Out of the cluster of rising stars in shooting efficiency (top right), Nique Clifford is among  the higher end in three-point percentage and places well in overall shooting percentage. Clifford is not only able to score with numbers around the NBA's rising stars, but can be as efficient as them as well.

Moving into the advance metrics, Clifford stayed consistent in ranking among the rising stars clusters. Clifford's PER rating was one the very high end of the risings stars cluster and outperformed many of the NBA's young All-Stars (bottom left).

When looking at the defensive side compared to eFG%, Clifford was just outside the All-Stars cluster and inside the rising stars cluster, showing that he has well-developed two-way game moving into the next level.

As a projected mid-to-late first round pick, Nique Clifford is a very intriguing prospect, showing great signs of being a rising star in the NBA. 

Javon Small, West Virginia, Senior

A name lesser known than the ones before, Javon Small possesses a tenacity and hustle that will treat him well in the next level. When measuring up against other prospects in the draft and current NBA rising stars and All-Stars, Small proves to be a very intriguing player, especially for where he is projected to be drafted. Javon Small had a very impressive year for the West Virginia Mountaineers, showing off his all-around play.

Being able to land All-Star quality offense in the second round would be quite the steal, and that is exactly what Small shows when comparing his pure offensive output (top left). He performed at the top of the entire prospect pool in terms of offensive production last season.

Small landed in the rising stars cluster when looking at shooting efficiency (top right) showing his ability to shoot well alongside his scoring output.

As I moved into an advanced statistics analysis, Small showed even more potential in the NBA as he landed amongst the All-Stars of the last five draft classes in PER and TS%. Small's production matched the efficiency of the top performers in the NBA, highlighting that he could very well be a gem of a prospect in the second round.

When comparing Small to other prospects in defensive rating and eFG%, he also found the All-Stars cluster, showing that beyond the box score, Small's play is even more impressive.

Javon Small's hustle and intensity will serve him well as he battles for a roster spot at the next level. But, once he gets an opportunity, look for him to shine because his potential is among the rising stars and All-Stars in the NBA right now.

Jamir Watkins, Florida State, Senior

Among the potential second-round steals, Jamir Watkins shows lots of potential as a skilled finisher and shooter at the next level. He performed very well for Florida State the past two years and showed up in big time games against key ACC opponents. Watkins put up 21 points and 8 rebounds at Duke and 23 points at Louisville, both tough road games. Watkins stats also measured up very well against the rising stars and All-Stars in the NBA today.

Watkins offensive output was very strong this season and measured up similarly to the current rising stars from recent draft classes (top left). He did play more minutes comparatively, than most of them, but was still able to put up plenty of points in his playing time.

Even when comparing Jamir Watkins's shooting percentages (top right), he still placed among the numbers the rising stars in the NBA had in the season before their draft years.

In the transition to advanced statistics, Watkins looked like an even better prospect, showing All-Star potential based on his performance last season. In a comparison of PER and TS% to risings stars and All-Stars, Watkins landed in the overlap between the two groups with a very good player efficiency rating.

Watkins placed right in the middle of the All-Stars cluster in a comparison of defensive rating and effective field goal percentage. Being able to put of advanced statistic numbers very similar to current young All-Stars stands to be a very good sign of Jamir Watkins's potential as he moves to the next level.