Have you seen Netflix's new documentary on the SEC quarterbacks from last year titled, "SEC Football: Any Given Saturday?" Well if you haven't, it's fantastic and provides a valuable in-depth look at the competitiveness in the best conference in college football.
This article is inspired by that Netflix show, as I wanted to provide a quantitative in-depth look at this year's SEC starting quarterback group. I collected data from Sports Reference CFB for an advanced statistic analysis at the QB's 2024 season. Then, I gathered my own collection of data by totaling each QB's 3rd down stats from ESPN's play-by-play for each game. This data was collected for each starting quarterback's last season in FBS play and I was able to compare completion percentage, sacks, and interceptions. By collecting the data myself, I was able to see trends in performance between conference and non-conference play as well as opponent difficulty.
Third downs provide a challenge to quarterbacks because they must get the yardage to gain the first down and can often create very pressured situations where mistakes are prone to happen. I chose to only analyze 3rd downs to get a valuable look at how each quarterback handles the pressure and what mistakes do they make when the pressure is on.
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and Passer Rating - 2024 Season
Adjusted yards per attempt factors in average yards per attempt while also valuing touchdowns and reducing the value for interceptions. When comparing passer rating and adjusted yards per attempt, Arch Manning (Texas) really stands out, however he did have limited reps last year. For the quarterbacks that started the whole year last year, John Mateer (Oklahoma) ranked really well compared to everyone else. Could there be another Washington State transfer to contend for the Heisman?
Jackson Arnold (Auburn), who struggled at Oklahoma and the quarterbacks leading some of the premier teams in the SEC in Alabama and Georgia rank really low in both categories compared above. Both quarterbacks did not start all of last season and Georgia is not a high yardage per play team, so these measurables make sense, but the passer rating is more of a shock.
Zach Calzada was not included in this chart because he did not play FBS football in 2024.
Passer Rating by QB - 2024
In this chart, pink means they were a starter for all of last season and grey means a backup or injured for a majority of last season. Amongst last year's starters, John Mateer shows clear separation in his passer rating. He is coming from weaker play in the Pac-12 compared to SEC starters like Diego Pavia, LaNorris Sellers, and many others. Jackson Arnold really stands out in terms of poor performance. He was surrounded by talent at Oklahoma and couldn't put up the production or the numbers. Now he heads to Auburn where his situation doesn't get any better. Arch Manning, Beau Pribula, and Blake Shapen could all be sneaky players to excel as full-time starters this year. Can Beau Pribula turn Missouri into a powerhouse? Can Blake Shapen turn around Mississippi State's team after last year's terrible performance? This season will be fun to watch.
Sacks Taken and Interceptions Thrown - 2024 - 3rd Downs
Now, looking at 2024 stats on 3rd downs only for the 2025 SEC starting quarterbacks, Jackson Arnold started the whole season and did not throw an interception on 3rd down...pretty impressive. Did it come at the cost of taking sacks instead? Yes. Instead of risking getting rid of the ball and saving the team yardage, Arnold took a lot more sacks compared to other quarterbacks. Taylen Green and LaNorris Sellers also took a lot of sacks, but they had worse offensive lines than Oklahoma. Marcel Reed stands out amongst the quarterbacks, especially as a first year starter in the SEC. He did not have a high count of interceptions or sacks on the crucial 3rd down plays last season as a full-time starter.
Completion Percentage - 2024 - 3rd Downs
I chose to look at 3rd down for half of this analysis because I believe that plays a big part into showing who a quarterback is on the field and the success they have. 3rd downs in the SEC are no joke. Looking at 3rd down completion percentage with pink being majority of 2024 season starters, Zach Calzada stand out because he was playing at Incarnate Wood in the FCS, so the weaker competition is going to correlate with a higher completion percentage. Garrett Nussmeier, one of the Heisman favorites and 1st overall pick contenders stands out in his ability find receivers on 3rd downs. With a completion percentage around 70%, he stands just above Washington State, not Oklahoma starter John Mateer and South Carolina starter LaNorris Sellers.
One player that stood out throughout the analysis was Ty Simpson. He is now leading Alabama, but even with his small amount of reps last year, he consistently ranked low in every measurable in this analysis. Is Alabama set up for a bad year? Only time will tell.
I also would have expected a higher 3rd down completion percentage from Joey Aguilar having been at Appalachian State and now being trusted by Tennessee to be under center.
Lots to uncover in this analysis about performance in general and specifically on 3rd downs. Let's see how the numbers shape up for the 2025 season.
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